Tory mayoral candidate Shaun Bailey topped the poll on first-preferences in Eltham constituency in this month’s election, detailed voting figures have revealed.
Bailey’s election campaign was much mocked on social media but he ran Labour’s Sadiq Khan far closer than expected, taking 35 per cent of first-preference votes across London, compared with 40 per cent for Khan.
Last week the GLA issued breakdowns of the vote by council ward, allowing for more local analysis to be carried out.
While Khan comfortably took most votes in Greenwich & Woolwich – by 48 per cent to Bailey’s 23 per cent – it was the Tory challenger who came out on top in the seven wards which make up the Eltham constituency, by 44 per cent to 33 per cent. In 2016, Khan narrowly won the most first-preference votes on the day in Eltham – beating Zac Goldsmith by 39 per cent to 37 per cent.
Sian Berry, for the Greens, came third in both constituencies, with 10 per cent in Greenwich & Woolwich and eight per cent in Eltham.
These figures do not include postal votes, which are not broken down by ward but counted across the borough as a whole. One in five voters in Greenwich sent their ballot papers by post. Khan won by 40 per cent to 32 per cent on postal votes – roughly similar to his on-the-day vote in the borough.
| Shaun Bailey (Tory) | Sadiq Khan (Labour) | Sian Berry (Green) | Luisa Porritt (Lib Dem) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldharbour & New Eltham | 55 | 23 | 6 | 2 |
| Eltham South | 51 | 27 | 7 | 2 |
| Eltham North | 46 | 31 | 9 | 3 |
| Eltham West | 48 | 32 | 7 | 2 |
| Middle Park and Sutcliffe | 39 | 37 | 7 | 3 |
| Kidbrooke with Hornfair | 38 | 36 | 8 | 3 |
| Blackheath Westcombe | 25 | 44 | 11 | 7 |
| Abbey Wood | 36 | 40 | 6 | 2 |
| Shooters Hill | 32 | 44 | 9 | 2 |
| Peninsula | 22 | 47 | 13 | 5 |
| Thamesmead Moorings | 36 | 41 | 5 | 2 |
| Plumstead | 31 | 45 | 6 | 2 |
| Charlton | 25 | 46 | 10 | 3 |
| Greenwich West | 19 | 50 | 12 | 6 |
| Woolwich Riverside | 24 | 49 | 8 | 3 |
| Glyndon | 25 | 49 | 8 | 2 |
| Woolwich Common | 23 | 51 | 8 | 2 |
| Postal votes | 32 | 40 | 7 | 5 |
| GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL | 32 | 41 | 8 | 4 |
| Eltham (except postal votes) | 44 | 33 | 8 | 3 |
| Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes) |
23 | 48 | 10 | 4 |
Bailey’s strongest showing was in the far south of the borough. He racked up 55 per cent of the on-the-day vote in Coldharbour and New Eltham, bordering Bexley and Bromley boroughs – compared with just 23 per cent for Khan. Bailey also claimed the most on-the-day votes in Eltham South (51 per cent) and Eltham North (46 per cent).
But strikingly, he also notched up the most on-the-day votes in Eltham West, long considered a safe Labour council seat, with 48 per cent of the vote compared with Khan’s 32 per cent. The ward includes new housing in Kidbrooke Village and the Page Estate, where Greenwich Council pulled back from introducing a low-traffic neighbourhood-style scheme in the days before the vote. It also includes part of the Brook Estate, where the council has started to build new social housing on green space.
Bailey also scored narrow on-the-day victories in Middle Park & Sutcliffe and Kidbrooke with Hornfair – edging ahead of Khan by two percentage points. However, Labour scored a comfortable victory in a council by-election on the same day in Kidbrooke with Hornfair, and polled more than the Tories in both wards in the two other polls, for London Assembly members.
In the north-east of the borough, Bailey also came close in Abbey Wood and Thamesmead Moorings – just four percentage points behind Khan in both.
With the mayoral system using first and second choices, the first-preference votes are likely to be a more accurate representation of people’s real views than a first-past-the-post election. Some people who chose not to back Khan as their first choice may return to Labour in a more traditional poll, while Bailey had less credible competition for rightwing votes following the collapse of Ukip.
While some of Bailey’s tactics – including campaigning outside Greater London in Watford and Brentwood – met with derision, his messages on knife crime and drivers’ rights cut through more than many pundits had expected.
| Charlie Davis (Tory) | Len Duvall (Labour) | Rosamund Kissi-Debrah (Green) | Chris Annous (Lib Dem) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldharbour & New Eltham | 51 | 30 | 10 | 5 |
| Eltham South | 48 | 30 | 11 | 6 |
| Eltham North | 45 | 35 | 12 | 5 |
| Eltham West | 40 | 38 | 12 | 5 |
| Middle Park and Sutcliffe | 33 | 40 | 14 | 8 |
| Kidbrooke with Hornfair | 33 | 44 | 13 | 6 |
| Blackheath Westcombe | 25 | 40 | 20 | 12 |
| Abbey Wood | 29 | 52 | 10 | 4 |
| Shooters Hill | 27 | 53 | 13 | 5 |
| Peninsula | 21 | 44 | 22 | 10 |
| Thamesmead Moorings | 27 | 54 | 10 | 4 |
| Plumstead | 26 | 54 | 11 | 5 |
| Charlton | 22 | 51 | 17 | 7 |
| Greenwich West | 18 | 50 | 19 | 11 |
| Woolwich Riverside | 20 | 55 | 15 | 7 |
| Glyndon | 20 | 59 | 13 | 5 |
| Woolwich Common | 19 | 60 | 13 | 6 |
| Postal votes | 30 | 45 | 13 | 8 |
| GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL | 29 | 46 | 14 | 7 |
| Eltham (except postal votes) | 40 | 39 | 12 | 6 |
| Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes) | 21 | 50 | 18 | 9 |
For the Greens, Sian Berry scored best in Peninsula ward, home to the Silvertown Tunnel, with 13 per cent of the on-the-day vote. She also scored 12 per cent of the vote in Greenwich West, 11 per cent in the highly marginal Blackheath Westcombe ward and 10 per cent in Charlton.
Berry also took nine per cent of votes in Eltham North, another marginal ward – showing that green-minded voters will hold some sway when it comes to the next council election.
But it was in the London Assembly polls where the Greens really piled on the votes – with Rosamund Kissi-Debrah pushing Conservative candidate Charlie Davis into third place in Peninsula and Greenwich West wards, again with postal votes excluded.
| Tory | Labour | Green | Lib Dem | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coldharbour & New Eltham | 48 | 26 | 8 | 4 |
| Eltham South | 46 | 28 | 10 | 4 |
| Eltham North | 41 | 30 | 12 | 5 |
| Eltham West | 38 | 35 | 10 | 4 |
| Middle Park & Sutcliffe | 32 | 36 | 12 | 5 |
| Kidbrooke with Hornfair | 30 | 40 | 11 | 4 |
| Blackheath Westcombe | 23 | 35 | 17 | 9 |
| Abbey Wood | 27 | 47 | 8 | 3 |
| Shooters Hill | 25 | 47 | 12 | 3 |
| Peninsula | 19 | 42 | 19 | 8 |
| Thamesmead Moorings | 26 | 50 | 6 | 2 |
| Plumstead | 25 | 49 | 10 | 3 |
| Charlton | 20 | 45 | 14 | 5 |
| Greenwich West | 17 | 45 | 17 | 10 |
| Woolwich Riverside | 19 | 51 | 12 | 4 |
| Glyndon | 18 | 54 | 10 | 3 |
| Woolwich Common | 18 | 56 | 10 | 4 |
| Postal votes | 28 | 39 | 10 | 6 |
| GREENWICH BOROUGH TOTAL | 27 | 41 | 12 | 5 |
| Eltham (except postal votes) | 37 | 35 | 11 | 4 |
| Greenwich & Woolwich (except postal votes) | 19 | 46 | 15 | 7 |
For the Lib Dems, Luisa Porritt scored best in Blackheath Westcombe (7 per cent), followed by Greenwich West (6 per cent) and Peninsula (5 per cent).
Party strategists will now be trying to work out what all this means for the next council election, which is due next May. However, these will be fought on new wards – making the political map of parts of Greenwich borough harder to predict than before.
Full ward-level voting details for all mayoral candidates is available on the London Elects website.
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